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Super Bowl 55 Parlay Analysis
There was plenty of traction on this piece a year ago, and while the selection (Kansas City and Over) ended up landing a couple of points short. Didn't discourage me from taking another crack at it this year, as we've got the Kansas City Chiefs involved once again.
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Last year's Favorite-Under result marked the 12th time that correlation has landed for a Super Bowl, as all the rest of the history hasn't changed from last year's numbers.
Super Bowl Over-Under Correlated Parlay Results
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Favorite-Over: 15 times
Favorite-Under: 12 times
Underdog-Over: 10 times
Underdog-Under: 13 times
That's the good news on my end as this year's entry can be much shorter, as jumping right past the historical part of things and down to the individual results by both franchises in the 2020 season.
2020 Season Breakdown
Kansas City ATS Win-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Win-Under: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Over: 4 times
Kansas City ATS Loss-Under: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Win-Over: 5 times
Tampa Bay ATS Win-Under: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Over: 6 times
Tampa Bay ATS Loss-Under: 2 times
Depending on a couple of numbers with Kansas City spreads and totals – most notably the Chiefs/Saints game which is graded at -2.5 or -3 out there – there may be a push or two in KC's category, but nothing egregious in that these things results should always be treated as support, not gospel.
However you look at it though, there does seem to be two stronger correlated results at play for this game, depending on who you like to win the game.
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Remember, in the previous 13 Super Bowls that were actually regular season rematches, the point-spread hasn't mattered once (13-0 or 12-0-1 ATS for eventual winner depending on if you're using -6.5 or -7 for the 1999 St Louis Rams), so even flipping the ATS side out for a ML correlated parlay is an option this year, if it's available to you.
But let's walk through each potential option here for the 37 total games these two teams have played, even with one of those being a head-to-head outcome that ended up going Underdog-Under in that 27-24 Kansas City win, as Tampa covered the +3.5 through the backdoor, and the 'under' never really approached sweat territory.
That's probably a good place to start.
Option #1: Underdog-Under (Tampa Bay +3 - Under 56)
This would be the clear cut side for those bettors that are favoring quarterback Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this week, as combining those specific results for the two respective teams (TB ATS win-under= KC ATS loss-under) comes up with the largest total of any option: 12.
The majority of 'under' tickets that cashed in Chiefs games this year came when KC failed to cover the spread, and the question of whether or not some of that has to do with the Chiefs “letting up” and letting all those opponents through the backdoor for all those weeks in a row has to at least be considered when looking at those results.
But combined with the slight edge Tampa had to the 'under' in their ATS wins (6 times), and this being the exact result we saw in the first meeting, there is plenty to like here.
Any Tampa SU victory is probably going to come on the backs of some strong defensive play by the Bucs, in whatever fashion that arrives. Whether it's through turnovers, or 3rd down sacks forcing punts etc, no matter how an 'under' bettor wants to get there with even an individual 'under' bet, a strong day by Tampa's defense is probably needed.
Now expecting the exact same ATS and total result in a rematch can be tough to be on board with, which is something I'd definitely have trouble with here, and it's not like the Bucs couldn't go out and win a high scoring game in this Super Bowl.
Tampa's scored 30 or more in all three of its playoff wins and in six straight games overall. They've only played a total of seven games since losing to Kansas City earlier in the year, so it's almost like Brady and Tampa knew they'd have to kick offensive production into high gear if to get here and possibly get another shot at Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Both are right in front of Tampa now, and with how many points their offense has put up in those past six games (35.6 points per game) has to bring pause to any 'under' look as well.
Option #2: Underdog-Over (Tampa Bay +3 - Over 56)
All those points Tampa's been putting up is part of what 'over' bettors are leaning on for this game, and as a combined number from both teams this year, that option comes in 3rd place with 9 total occurrences.
This would be the option most who like Tampa to win the game would land on I believe, simply because of the general consensus out there that the only way to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs is to outscore them in a shootout. It's how the Raiders did it earlier this year (40-32) and even KC's most recent two losses a year ago followed a similar script.
Tampa's had a few solid wins of this nature already this year, including out scoring that same Raiders (45-20), in the Raiders very next game following that win over the Chiefs. Talk about another thing falling into place for Brady and the Bucs this year, as they even catch non-conference foes in huge letdown spots after big wins like that.
The most notable Tampa win that fell in this category though was beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship, although three 2nd half interceptions from Brady and some questionable decision making by the Packers helped that result get to the finish line too.
But sitting in third out of four potential options in the tallies for these teams this year, and the general consensus being any upset win for the Bucs is likely going to have to come in a high-scoring game, not sure I could fully get behind this option at all.
It could easily happen, but definitely wouldn't be the first choice.
Option #3: Favorite-Under (Kansas City -3 - Under 56)
A Tampa-Over correlated parlay might not be my first choice, but I do know that my last choice would probably have to be this one and the history supports it.
The combined total of this result is the lowest of any four options (6), and it would also mean that one thing would have to happen that I'd have a hard time getting behind; the Chiefs defense completely keeping Tom Brady and the offense in check.
Never mind the notion that Tampa will benefit from the possibility of more flags being thrown on their opponent, or even the six straight games of scoring 30+ for the Bucs offense. Both of which are valid points to stay away from this kind of correlated play.
But this is yet another high stakes matchup throughout the careers of QB Tom Brady and KC Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and Brady's too much of Spagnuolo's schemes/defenses not to be well prepared for this game.
Spagnuolo was a defensive coach on Andy Reid's staff in Philadelphia in the early 2000's when the Eagles were making all those NFC title games, only getting to the Super Bowl once and losing to Tom Brady.
Spagnuolo then moved on to become the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants in 2007, learning from his mistakes in that NE/Philly 2004 Super Bowl as a defensive assistant to become the architect who ended Brady and New England's perfect season.
There have been a few other stops along the way for these two, but most recently it's been these battles these past two years with Brady vs KC, as Spagnuolo became the DC there in 2019.
I know that if I was Brady in that historical timeline, I'd never forget about the guy who schemed up the plan to prevent me from making history like being the 2nd team ever to have a perfect season.
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And outside of a slow 1st half in the regular season meeting this year, Brady's offenses haven't had a problem scoring on Spagnuolo's defenses for the most part since that 2007 Super Bowl. At least not when Brady's had the caliber of weapons that he has at his disposal this year.
Brady's seen it all from this guy from a scheme perspective, and if he and Tampa execute correctly and efficiently, then, backing this correlated side is rather hard to get behind.
Tampa's going to get their points in my opinion, and for this Favorite-Under correlation to hit, both defenses are going to need to play lights out and hold down both of these QB's. Not something I see happening too often either.
Option #4: Favorite-Over (Kansas City -3 and Over 56)
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The other half of any locked in 'over' belief here comes in as what had the 2nd best tally of the bunch (10) for both teams this year, as KC split 4-4 O/U in games that they covered the number, but games that Tampa failed to cash an ATS ticket, the 'over' connected in six of eight tries.
Leaning on that (75%) result isn't going to be hard for most to do given it means cheering for plenty of points from Mahomes and company, and with it being the best correlated result in Super Bowl history over the years still (15 times), the more support the better.
But while public percentages and that type of handicapping approach aren't nearly as useful for Super Bowl betting, the idea that this option feels like the “squarest of the bunch” doesn't particularly sit right.
I think given that the majority of those 10 combined results for this approach came in higher scoring games that turned out to be Tampa Bay ATS losses, maybe going the KC team total 'over' route may be the better option to sharpen those edges around that square, although you wouldn't be able to parlay the two together in all likelihood.
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Couldn't fault anyone for going with this option with all things considered, it's just not the one for me.